Phar, Kim Beng and Hamzah, Luthfy (2026) A broken promise can only incense the GCC further: Credibility matters. Awani International, NA (NA). pp. 1-4.
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Abstract
This article examines the growing crisis of strategic credibility in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) amid renewed regional tensions involving Iran and the United States. It argues that security partnerships are sustained not solely by military capabilities or formal commitments, but by the credibility of political assurances and the consistency of strategic behaviour. When promises of restraint, consultation, or protection are perceived to have been broken, Gulf states are compelled to reassess the reliability of external security partners and the long-term viability of existing regional security arrangements. The article situates this credibility dilemma within the wider transformation of the Middle Eastern security order, where GCC states increasingly seek strategic autonomy, diplomatic diversification, and more flexible relationships with global powers. It further contends that renewed military escalation involving Iran risks undermining the Gulf states' efforts to maintain regional stability, economic transformation, and constructive diplomatic engagement. In this context, credibility becomes a strategic asset: once weakened, verbal reassurance alone may be insufficient to restore political trust. The article argues that repeated inconsistencies between diplomatic commitments and military actions can accelerate hedging behaviour among GCC states and encourage the diversification of security partnerships. Ultimately, it concludes that sustainable Gulf security requires predictable strategic conduct, credible assurances, consultation with regional partners, and a security architecture that recognises GCC states as autonomous actors rather than passive participants in wider geopolitical rivalries.
| Item Type: | Article (Electronic Media) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); strategic credibility; security assurances; Gulf security; US–GCC relations; Iran; strategic autonomy; hedging; alliance reassurance; regional security architecture; political trust; Middle East |
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JZ International relations |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization (ISTAC) Office of the Rector |
| Depositing User: | Mr Muhammad Syameer Luthfy Bin Hamzah |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Jul 2026 11:33 |
| Last Update: | 21 Jul 2026 11:33 |
| Queue Number: | 2026-07-Q4198 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/130100 |
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