Phar, Kim Beng and Hamzah, Luthfy (2026) Urging Iranians to rise against Tehran is a hyper-risky move. Awani International, NA (NA). pp. 1-3.
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Abstract
This article examines the strategic risks associated with external political encouragement of domestic uprisings, using United States President Donald Trump's public support for Iranian protesters as a case study. It argues that foreign calls for regime resistance are not merely rhetorical expressions of solidarity but forms of political signalling capable of altering the calculations of protesters, state authorities, and regional actors. In the Iranian context, ambiguous promises of external assistance risk inflating expectations among opposition movements while reinforcing Tehran's perception that domestic unrest constitutes a foreign-enabled threat to regime survival. The article further explores the growing role of digital connectivity and satellite-based communication systems in transforming the relationship between technology, sovereignty, and political mobilisation. While such technologies may enhance protest coordination, their perceived use as instruments of external intervention can accelerate securitisation and intensify state repression. Beyond Iran, the article highlights the risks of regional escalation, asymmetric retaliation, disruptions to maritime trade and energy infrastructure, and wider consequences for Asian and ASEAN economies. Drawing on the principles of sovereignty and strategic restraint, it argues that condemnation of repression must be distinguished from external incitement of political upheaval. Ultimately, the article contends that sustainable crisis management requires quiet diplomacy, multilateral pressure, humanitarian engagement, and calibrated political incentives rather than ambiguous promises of intervention that may internationalise domestic unrest and increase the likelihood of a wider proxy confrontation.
| Item Type: | Article (Electronic Media) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Iran; external intervention; political signalling; regime security; protest movements; strategic restraint; digital connectivity; sovereignty; proxy confrontation; ASEAN; US–Iran relations; crisis management |
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JZ International relations |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization (ISTAC) Office of the Rector |
| Depositing User: | Mr Muhammad Syameer Luthfy Bin Hamzah |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Jul 2026 11:00 |
| Last Update: | 21 Jul 2026 11:00 |
| Queue Number: | 2026-07-Q4196 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/130098 |
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