Phar, Kim Beng and Hamzah, Luthfy (2026) Drones spiking risk of a mega-miscalculation in Persian Gulf. Asia Times, NA (NA). pp. 1-4.
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Abstract
This article examines the growing role of unmanned aerial systems in intensifying the risks of strategic miscalculation and inadvertent military escalation in the Persian Gulf. Using the United States' interception and destruction of an Iranian drone near an American aircraft carrier strike group as a point of departure, the article argues that the increasing normalisation of drone encounters has compressed the regional escalation ladder and narrowed the time available for military and political decision-making. While unmanned systems reduce the immediate human and political costs associated with strategic probing, their deployment also creates ambiguity over intent, thresholds of retaliation, and proportional military response. The article situates these developments within the broader context of US–Iran strategic rivalry, fragile nuclear diplomacy, economic pressures on Iran, and persistent maritime tensions extending from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Arabian Sea. It further contends that repeated drone encounters, tanker seizures, and close naval manoeuvres are gradually eroding strategic confidence and increasing the probability that a minor tactical incident could trigger a wider regional confrontation. Rather than relying exclusively on military deterrence and additional force deployments, the article advocates predictable rules of engagement, crisis communication mechanisms, confidence-building measures, and tacit understandings governing unmanned systems. Ultimately, it argues that the absence of effective crisis-management mechanisms leaves stability in the Persian Gulf increasingly dependent on restraint and chance, thereby heightening the risk of a major conflict emerging from a seemingly limited maritime incident.
| Item Type: | Article (Electronic Media) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Drone warfare; Persian Gulf; US–Iran relations; strategic miscalculation; crisis escalation; unmanned aerial systems; maritime sDrone warfare; Persian Gulf; US–Iran relations; strategic miscalculation; crisis escalation; unmanned aerial systems; maritime security; Strait of Hormuz; deterrence; crisis managementecurity; Strait of Hormuz; deterrence; crisis management |
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JZ International relations |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization (ISTAC) Office of the Rector |
| Depositing User: | Mr Muhammad Syameer Luthfy Bin Hamzah |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Jul 2026 07:56 |
| Last Update: | 20 Jul 2026 09:41 |
| Queue Number: | 2026-07-Q4192 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/130094 |
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