Phar, Kim Beng and Hamzah, Luthfy (2025) Code of Conduct of the South China Sea cannot be completed by 2026. Code of Conduct of the South China Sea cannot be completed by 2026, NA (NA). p. 1.
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Abstract
The article argues that the long-anticipated Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea is highly unlikely to be completed by 2026 due to intensifying geopolitical rivalries and growing strategic distrust among major powers. While ASEAN and China remain formally committed to negotiations, the analysis contends that the broader international environment has become increasingly unfavourable for meaningful compromise. Rising tensions between China and Japan, expanding United States support for Taiwan, and the fragile nature of the temporary US–China trade and technology truce have collectively reduced Beijing’s willingness to accept legally binding maritime constraints in the South China Sea. The article further suggests that China’s strategic calculations are now closely tied to developments surrounding Taiwan and the unpredictability of American domestic politics ahead of the 2026 US elections. The article also highlights internal ASEAN complications that weaken the organisation’s negotiating cohesion. Indonesia’s uncertain strategic direction, unresolved tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, and Malaysia’s diplomatic limitations as ASEAN–China coordinator are identified as additional barriers to progress. Although ASEAN states continue to conduct working-group meetings and draft negotiations, the article argues that procedural diplomacy alone cannot substitute for broader strategic stability. By contrasting official optimism from ASEAN leaders with persistent disagreements over UNCLOS, enforcement mechanisms, and sovereignty claims, the piece concludes that expectations for a completed COC by 2026 may amount to diplomatic overconfidence rather than geopolitical reality. Ultimately, it maintains that the South China Sea dispute reflects not only regional maritime tensions but also the wider contest for influence between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific.
| Item Type: | Article (Electronic Media) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Code of Conduct; ASEAN; South China Sea; geopolitics |
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JZ International relations |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization (ISTAC) Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences > Department of Political Science Office of the Rector |
| Depositing User: | Mr Muhammad Syameer Luthfy Bin Hamzah |
| Date Deposited: | 07 May 2026 15:58 |
| Last Modified: | 07 May 2026 16:09 |
| Queue Number: | 2026-05-Q3247 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/128876 |
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