Short-term forecasting of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Malaysia using RF-SSA model

Shaharudin, Shazlyn Milleana and Ismail, Shuhaida and Hassan, Noor Artika and Tan, Mou Leong and Sulaiman, Nurul Ainina Filza (2021) Short-term forecasting of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Malaysia using RF-SSA model. Frontiers in Public Health, 9. pp. 1-14. E-ISSN 2296-2565

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Abstract

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has affected millions of lives worldwide. On 29th April 2020, Malaysia reported more than 5,000 COVID-19 cases; the second highest in the Southeast Asian region after Singapore. Recently, a forecastingmodel was developed tomeasure and predict COVID- 19 cases in Malaysia on daily basis for the next 10 days using previously-confirmed cases. A Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis (RF-SSA) is proposed by establishing L and ET parameters via several tests. The advantage of using this forecasting model is it would discriminate noise in a time series trend and produce significant forecasting results. The RF-SSA model assessment was based on the official COVID-19 data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) to predict daily confirmed cases between 30th April and 31st May, 2020. These results revealed that parameter L = 5 (T/20) for the RF-SSA model was indeed suitable for short-time series outbreak data, while the appropriate number of eigentriples was integral as it influenced the forecasting results. Evidently, the RF-SSA had over-forecasted the cases by 0.36%. This signifies the competence of RF-SSA in predicting the impending number of COVID- 19 cases. Nonetheless, an enhanced RF-SSA algorithm should be developed for higher effectivity of capturing any extreme data changes.

Item Type:	Article (Journal)
Additional Information:	8418/90510
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19, eigentriples, forecasting, recurrent forecasting, singular spectrum analysis, trend, window length
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GA Mathematical geography. Cartography H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA154 Statistical data R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA643 Communicable Diseases and Public Health T Technology > T Technology (General) > T55.4 Industrial engineering.Management engineering. > T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Medicine Kulliyyah of Medicine > Department of Community Medicine (Effective: 1st January 2011)
Depositing User:	nur hakimah a manan
Date Deposited:	02 Jul 2021 11:17
Last Modified:	16 Jul 2021 15:50
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/90510

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