Abdul Rahim, Nadirah and Ahmad Mahmood, Muhamad Imran Haris and Shahrul Ariffin, Muhammad Aryss Zafran and Mutholib, Abdul (2026) Trade-space exploration comparison for reliability and parametric cost models for satellite anomalies. In: Revolutionizing Ideas for Pioneering The Future. Kulliyyah of Information and Communication Technology (KICT), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pp. 10-16.
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Abstract
The importance of satellites in delivering critical services, including communication systems, navigation, and earth observation, heavily depends on system reliability, which is defined as the probability that a system will remain failure-free under specified conditions, ensuring the satellites remain safe, efficient, and long-lasting. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of satellite anomalies as significant contributors to objective failures, cost inefficiencies, and degradation of satellite systems. However, these studies often lack a comprehensive analysis of reliability using structured mathematical models. This research addresses this gap by analyzing 87 satellite data points for reliability and 42 cost data from the Seradata database using the Trade-Space Exploration (TSE) method. Studies were conducted by building both parametric (Weibull, Exponential, and Poisson) and non-parametric (Kaplan-Meier and Monte Carlo Simulation) models, and all were assessed. The results demonstrate that the Exponential model exhibits the best overall performance, with the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for antenna, transponder, amplifier, and battery of 0.22, 0.27, 0.30, and 0.30, respectively. Regarding the cost, this research examines the relationship between the design life of satellite subsystems and the cost of anomalies utilizing data from the Seradata database. Three statistical models — Exponential, Weibull, and Poisson distributions — were applied to cost data for four critical subsystems: antenna, payload, power system, and attitude control. Each model was fitted using both one-variable (cost-only) and two-variable (design life and cost) approaches to evaluate subsystem behaviour, both independently and in combination. Among all models, the Exponential distribution consistently produced the best results. For instance, in the payload subsystem, it achieved the lowest RMSE and RRMSE of 115.73 in the one-variable and 41.66% in the two-variable case. Future recommendations include Artificial Intelligence analysis to obtain reduced RMSE for reliability and cost values. Moreover, different data sources should also be analysed for both reliability and cost.
| Item Type: | Book Chapter |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Reliability; Parametric cost; RMSE; Exponential; Weibull; Poisson; Kaplan Meier; Monte Carlo |
| Subjects: | BPC Science and Technology in Islam > BPC175 Islam and engineering. Sustainable engineering. Sustainable building T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK5101 Telecommunication. Including telegraphy, radio, radar, television |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | Kulliyyah of Engineering > Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering |
| Depositing User: | Dr Nadirah Abdul Rahim |
| Date Deposited: | 12 May 2026 12:31 |
| Last Modified: | 12 May 2026 12:31 |
| Queue Number: | 2026-05-Q3217 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/128607 |
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