Duasa, Jarita and Ahmad, Azlin Alisa and Idris, Zera Zuryana and Mohd Thas Thaker, Mohamed Asmy (2025) Forecasting the impact of U.S. tariff hikes on Malaysian palm oil exports: a scenario-based approach. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics & Management Sciences, 14 (3). E-ISSN 2226-3624
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Abstract
This study investigates the potential economic impact of the United States' decision to raise import tariffs on Malaysian palm oil from 10% to 19%, effective August 1, 2025. Utilizing scenario-based forecasting and univariate time-series models, the analysis evaluates Malaysia’s palm oil export value and the corresponding U.S. import value from 1989 to 2024, with forecasts extending through 2030. Two scenarios are simulated: a baseline scenario assuming the continuation of a 10% tariff and a shock scenario reflecting the 19% tariff hike. The results indicate significant projected revenue losses under the shock scenario—approximately USD 434,950 in export earnings and USD 2.69 million in U.S. import value over the six-year forecast period. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Malaysia’s palm oil industry to protectionist trade policies and emphasize the need for strategic diversification, value-added export development, and proactive trade diplomacy. The study contributes empirical evidence to inform policy decisions in the face of external trade shocks.
| Item Type: | Article (Journal) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Palm oil exports, trade tariff, Malaysia–U.S. trade, time-series forecasting Scenario Analysis |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | Kulliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences Kulliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences > Department of Economics |
| Depositing User: | Dr Mohamed Asmy Bin Mohd Thas Thaker |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2025 09:54 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2025 09:54 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/123074 |
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