Evaluating sea level changes in Southeast Asia: insights from CMIP6 projections under the SSP3-7.0 scenario

Azran, Noah Irfan and Mat Rahim, Fatin Nur Hazwani and Kee, Soo Chen and Jing, Xiang Chung and Showkat Ali, Syamir Alihan and Griffiths, Alex and Liew, Ju Neng and Ramli, Muhammad Zahir and Ariffin, Effi Helmy and Miskon, Mohd Fuad and Yunus, Kamaruzzaman and Mohamed, Juliana and Akhir, Mohd Fadzil and Jeofry, Hafeez (2025) Evaluating sea level changes in Southeast Asia: insights from CMIP6 projections under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Water Conservation & Management, 9 (2). pp. 207-215. ISSN 2523-5664 E-ISSN 2523-5672

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Abstract

The anticipated rise in sea levels presents a profound threat to coastal regions worldwide, including Malaysia, where about 70% of the population live in vulnerable coastal areas. This study analyses sea level projections for Malaysia’s coastal regions up to the year 2100, incorporating key contributors outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely Thermal Expansion, Ice Sheet and Glacier Melting, Groundwater Discharge, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Results indicate that sea level rise in the South China Sea (SCS), particularly in the South China Sea Peninsular Malaysia (SCSPM) and the South China Sea East Malaysia (SCSEM), is expected to exceed that of other Malaysian coastal areas such as the Straits of Malacca (SM) and the Sulu Sea (SS). Specifically, by 2100, projections suggest a maximum increase of 366.6 mm and 370.7 mm for SCSPM and SCSEM, respectively, compared to 324.2 mm for the SM and 343.5 mm for SS. In addition, the analysis reveals spatial disparities in sea level rise across Malaysian regions, with the SCS experiencing the most pronounced changes. The study also highlights shifts in the relative contributions of various factors to overall sea level rise by the end of the century. Sterodynamic processes, glacier melting, and groundwater discharge are expected to increase, accounting for 49.1%, 8.6%, and 1.4% of total sea level rise, respectively, compared to 2020 levels. Conversely, the contribution from ice sheets is projected to decline, constituting 43% of total sea level rise. Notably, GIA is anticipated to mitigate sea level rise slightly, with a projected contribution of -2.1% by 2100. These findings provide valuable insights into the differential impacts of sea level rise on Malaysian coastal regions and underscore the urgency of adaptive strategies to mitigate the potential consequences of rising sea levels throughout the twenty-first century.

Item Type:	Article (Journal)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Ice sheet melting, glacier melting, sterodynamic processes, groundwater discharge, glacial isostatic adjustment
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Science > Department of Marine Science Kulliyyah of Science > Institute of Oceanography and Maritime Studies
Depositing User:	Dr Fuad Miskon
Date Deposited:	09 Jun 2025 10:22
Last Modified:	09 Jun 2025 10:49
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/121381

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