Nonlinear impacts of climate anomalies on oil palm productivity

Kamil, Nur Nadia and Xiao, Saizi and Syed Salleh, Sharifah Nabilah and Xu, Hongbing and Zuang, Castiel Chen (2024) Nonlinear impacts of climate anomalies on oil palm productivity. Heliyon, 10 (15). pp. 1-15. ISSN 2405-8440 E-ISSN 2405-8440

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Abstract

Oil palm contributes to various global needs as one of the most productive oil crops, but there exist ongoing concerns regarding its yield reductions and associated environmental impacts resulting from land conversion. This is the first detailed report investigating the nonlinear threats to estate-level oil palm yields posed by El Nino ˜ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a major driver of climate variability. Using the Malaysian Palm Oil Board administrative records on monthly performances reported by oil palm estates through the e-submissions portal spanning from January 2015 to June 2023, we focused on elucidating the impacts of ENSO on fresh fruit bunch yield, oil extraction rate, and oil yield. We found that both El Nino ˜ and La Nina ˜ conditions, characterized by extreme levels of ENSO indices cumulated over lags of 0–23 months prior to harvest, were associated with statistically significant reductions in yields. Lag association patterns unveiled that production risks were linked to preharvest exposure to extreme ENSO indices in various time windows. Subgroup analyses further revealed that the effects were pronounced in labor-intensive estates and those lacking fertilizer investments. This study underscores the necessity for adaptation strategies in response to future climate anomalies.

Item Type:	Article (Journal)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD1401 Agriculture H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD2321 Industry
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences Kulliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences > Department of Economics
Depositing User:	Dr. Sharifah Nabilah Syed Salleh
Date Deposited:	20 Aug 2024 11:13
Last Modified:	11 Nov 2024 08:38
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/113933

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