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On the Malaysian ringgit exchange rate determination and recent depreciation

Quadry, Mahmud Oluwaseyi and Mohamad, Azhar and Yusof, Yusniliyana (2017) On the Malaysian ringgit exchange rate determination and recent depreciation. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 25 (1). pp. 1-26. E-ISSN 2462-1420

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Abstract

The Ringgit (MYR) has recently, since October 2015, suffered a large decline against most world currencies. In this study, based on the theory of exchange rate determination, we tested for a long run relationship between both MYRUSD and MYRGBP against the differential interest rate, differential money supply, price of world crude oil and Goods and Services Tax (GST, as dummy variable). We ran an Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model on monthly data from January 2010 to January 2017. We found a negative long run relationship between MYRGBP and differential money supply and a positive long run relationship against the world crude oil price. As the Ringgit (MYR) supply increased relative to the British Pound, the Ringgit depreciated, and as the crude oil price strengthened, the Ringgit appreciated. A high dependency of the Ringgit on world crude oil implies a bad sign. In our view, Malaysia needs to work harder to attract foreign direct investment to maintain the value of the Ringgit at a healthy level.

Item Type: Article (Journal)
Additional Information: 3334/57072
Uncontrolled Keywords: Exchange rate determination, Foreign exchange, Ringgit, Malaysia
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG201 Money
H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG201 Money

H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG3810 Foreign exchange
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): Kulliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences > Department of Finance
Depositing User: Dr Azhar Mohamad
Date Deposited: 05 Jun 2017 10:21
Last Modified: 18 Jul 2017 13:27
URI: http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/57072

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