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Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

Ramli, Nurulhuda and Abdul Ghani, Noraida and Ahmad Hatta, Zulkarnain and Mohd Hashim, Intan Hashimah and Sulong, Jasni and Mohd Mahudin, Nor Diana and Abdul Rahman, Shukran and Mat Saad, Zarina (2014) Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior. In: 3rd International Conference on Quantitative Sciences and Its Applications: Fostering Innovation, Streamlining Development, ICOQSIA 2014, 12-14 Aug 2014, Langkawi, Kedah.

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The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Invited Papers)
Additional Information: 3951/40009
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian network, crowd emotion, crowd behavior, Hajj gathering
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology > BF176 Psychological tests and testing
B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology > BF636 Applied psychology
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences > Department of Psychology
Depositing User: Nor Diana Mohd Mahudin
Date Deposited: 30 Dec 2014 10:16
Last Modified: 22 Nov 2017 09:24
URI: http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/40009

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