Mathematical modelling approach in predicting new mother sea turtle nesting patterns at Chagar Hutang Turtle Sanctuary, Redang Island, Malaysia

Wan Samperisam, Wan Siti Noor Sofea and Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah and Zakaria, Siti Fatimah and Noor Harun, Fatimah and Rusli, Mohd Uzair and Noor Hassim, Muhamad Fairuz (2025) Mathematical modelling approach in predicting new mother sea turtle nesting patterns at Chagar Hutang Turtle Sanctuary, Redang Island, Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, 21 (3). pp. 2067-2079. ISSN 2289-5981 E-ISSN 2289-599X

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Abstract

Sea turtles, ancient marine reptiles that have survived for over 210 million years, now face unprecedented threats from human activities and climate change. This study employs mathematical modeling to predict and understand sea turtle nesting patterns at Chagar Hutang Turtle Sanctuary, Redang Island, Malaysia. We analyzed historical nesting data from 1993 to 2022 using three continuous time models: exponential growth, logistic growth, and Gompertz growth. These models were fitted to the data using Maple Software, followed by rigorous error analysis. The Gompertz model emerged as the best fit, with sum of error of 20.7, significantly outperforming the logistic (28.5) and exponential (1227.2) models. This suggests that sea turtle population growth in the area follows a sigmoidal pattern with asymmetric growth rates. The model predicts a continued increase in new mother sea turtles up to 2030, but with a decreasing growth rate, indicating the population may be approaching carrying capacity. These findings provide valuable insights for conservation planning, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies and expanded protection efforts. Our study underscores the efficacy of mathematical modeling in predicting sea turtle population dynamics and informs evidence-based conservation strategies for these iconic marine species

Item Type:	Article (Journal)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Mother sea turtle, mathematical modelling, exponential, logistic, Gompertz model
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Science > Department of Computational and Theoretical Sciences
Depositing User:	Dr Siti Fatimah Zakaria
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2025 11:15
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2025 11:15
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/111213

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