Mohamed Fouz, Mohamed Zacky
(2026)
The remaking of Middle East politics post-7 October.
Stratsea, NA (NA).
NA-NA.
Abstract
The 7 October attacks did more than trigger another devastating chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; they sent shockwaves far beyond Gaza, setting off a chain reaction that is quietly reshaping the Middle East’s political order.
Like the opening strike in a game of billiards, the initial impact was concentrated, but the collisions that followed altered trajectories across the entire table.
What we are witnessing today is a series of second-order effects of 7 October that are redrawing regional alignments in ways few anticipated.
In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attack, many analysts assumed that Israel’s overwhelming military response had forged a new regional consensus. Non-state armed groups – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and others – were increasingly framed as destabilising forces that needed to be decisively neutralised. This reading seemed to explain the notably restrained reactions of neighbouring states as Israel expanded its campaign beyond Gaza.
What went largely unnoticed, however, was how this effort to confront non-state actors unsettled long-standing power arrangements and opened unexpected political space. The real story of 7 October lies not only in Gaza or southern Lebanon, but in the quieter shifts unfolding across Syria, Iran, Turkey and the Gulf.
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