Bhalerao, Pramod and Kumar, Krishna and Jamadar, Irshad and Saleel, C. Ahamed and Krishnan, Shashikumar and Khan, Sher Afghan (2026) Long-term trends and variability in sugarcane production: a five-district comparative analysis with meteorological context in Maharashtra and Karnataka, India. Scientific Reports, 16 (NA). pp. 1-25. E-ISSN 2045-2322
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Abstract
Climate-resilient planning and policy development for major cane-growing regions depend on understanding sugarcane production patterns, which span long time periods and exhibit fluctuations at the district level. The study analyzes sugarcane production data from five Indian districts by comparing 22 years of crop-year data, including records from 1999 to 2021, for Ahmednagar, Solapur, and Nashik in Maharashtra, and for Bellary and Dharwad in Karnataka. Parametric and non-parametric methods (linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope) are applied to quantify trends; period-wise summaries, structural-break detection (Pettitt test), and coefficient-of-variation and extreme-year statistics are reported for all five districts. Ahmednagar and Nashik show significant positive yield trends; Solapur has the largest scale and lowest yield variability; Bellary has the highest mean yield (89.46 t/ha). Period-wise analysis identifies three regimes (1999–2006, 2007–2013, 2014–2020) with rising mean yields in most districts. Yield is relatively more stable than area and production (the lowest CV among the three). For Ahmednagar, combining meteorological data to identify very good crop years shows that the drought index, moisture sufficiency, heat stress days, and yield are closely related. Extremely high and low-yielding years can be explained by the variations in these indices. The comparative framework and the district-level evidence enable providing distinct inputs for water-risk management, climate services, and stabilization measures in the water-limited sugarcane systems of the Deccan Plateau.
| Item Type: | Article (Journal) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Sugarcane, Production trend, Yield, Time series decomposition, Variability analysis |
| Subjects: | S Agriculture > SB Plant culture S Agriculture > SD Forestry |
| Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): | Kulliyyah of Engineering > Department of Mechanical Engineering Kulliyyah of Engineering |
| Depositing User: | Prof. Dr. Sher Afghan Khan |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jul 2026 09:02 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Jul 2026 09:02 |
| Queue Number: | 2026-06-Q3784 |
| URI: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/129506 |
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