Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models

Mohamed, Bahari and Mohamad, Meriati (2020) Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. In: 2nd Joint International Conference on Emerging Computing Technology and Sports (JICETS 2019), 25th-27th November 2019, Bandung, Indonesia.

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Abstract

This study is an attempt to examine empirically the best ARIMA model for forecasting. The monthly time series data routinely-collected at Orthopedic clinic from January 2013 until June 2018 have been used for this purpose. At first the stationarity condition of the data series is observed by ACF and PACF plots, then checked using the Ljung-Box-Pierce Qstatistic. It has been found that the monthly time series data of the Orthopedic clinic are stationary. The best ARIMA model has been selected by using the MAPE. To select the best ARIMA model the data split into two periods, viz. estimation period and validation period. The model for which the values of MAPE are smallest is considered as the best model. Hence, ARIMA (1, 0, 0) is found as the best model for forecasting the Orthopedic clinic data series. The out of sample forecast by using ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model indicated a fluctuation of monthly orthopedic patients demand, from lowest was 294 and the highest was 299 patients that could receive treatment from the clinic in a month.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Plenary Papers)
Additional Information:	5635/81910
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA modeling, Autoregressive integrated moving average models, Out-of-sample forecast, Patient admissions, Q statistics, Stationarity, Time-series data, Validation periods
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Nursing Kulliyyah of Nursing > Department of Professional Nursing Studies
Depositing User:	Ms Meriati Mohamad
Date Deposited:	03 Aug 2020 09:42
Last Modified:	20 Jan 2021 05:05
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/81910

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