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Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia

Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum and Jamal, Nur Nabilah and Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah (2019) Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia. In: 3rd International Language & Tourism Conference 2019, 18 - 19 Oct 2019, Muar, Johor.

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Tourism industry has become one of the main sources for Malaysia's income. It affects other sectors such as hotels, retail businesses and transportations. Thus, it is important to monitor the development of tourism industry, so that proper planning can be enforced. Therefore, forecasting by using time series analysis, which is the Box-Jenkins method will be discussed here to provide future information to support the decision-making processes. The forecast performance has been compared by using magnitude error measurements. The empirical result shown that SARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,1)12 is the best model in forecasting tourist arrivals with only 8% different between 12 of the actual and forecast values.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Other)
Additional Information: 8577/77875
Uncontrolled Keywords: Tourism; forecasting; Box-Jenkins; time series
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button): Kulliyyah of Languages and Management
Depositing User: Dr. Nur Hidayah Abd Rahman
Date Deposited: 12 Feb 2020 14:46
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2020 14:15
URI: http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/77875

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