Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

Abdul Halim, Syafrina and M.D., Zalina and Liew, Juneng (2014) Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia. In: 6th IAHS­EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management, 4th-6th June 2014, Bologna, Italy.

	PDF - Published Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (826kB) | Request a copy
	PDF (SCOPUS) - Published Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (304kB) | Request a copy

Abstract

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Invited Papers)
Additional Information:	7337/51571
Uncontrolled Keywords:	stochastic downscaling, General Circulation Model; multi-model; weather generator; extreme precipitation
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Engineering > Department of Science
Depositing User:	Dr Syafrina Abdul Halim
Date Deposited:	12 Aug 2016 15:47
Last Modified:	12 Aug 2016 15:47
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/51571

Actions (login required)

View Item