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Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach

M., Abdesselam and Karim, A.N. Mustafizul and Kays, H. M. Emrul and Sarker, R. A. (2014) Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach. Advanced Materials Research, 529. pp. 402-407. ISSN 1022-6680

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Abstract

Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this respect the importance of more accurate demand prediction cannot be exaggerated. This research presents a forecasting approach tailoring the multiplicative Holt-Winters method with growth adjustment through incorporation of fuzzy logic. The growth parameter of the time series values is adjusted with the conventional Holt-Winters method and tested for predicting the real-life demand of transformer tank experienced by a local company. The result obtained by applying the new approach shows a significant improvement in the accuracy of the forecasted demand and sheds light on further enhancement of the proposed method by optimizing other time series parameters through fuzzy logic application for possible application in prediction of demand having trend, seasonal and cyclical changes.

Item Type: Article (Journal)
Additional Information: 4289/41840
Uncontrolled Keywords: Demand forecasting, Holt-Winter Method, Fuzzy logic, Artificial Intelligence
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General) > T55.4 Industrial engineering.Management engineering. > T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis
T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) > TA190 Management of engineering works
T Technology > TS Manufactures > TS155 Production management
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes: Kulliyyah of Engineering > Department of Manufacturing and Materials Engineering
Depositing User: Prof. Dr. A. N. Mustafizul Karim
Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2015 15:52
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2017 15:52
URI: http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/41840

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