Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: a machine learning analysis

Douglas, Karen M and Sutton, Robbie M and Van Lissa, Caspar J and Stroebe, Wolfgang and Kreienkamp, Jannis and Agostini, Maximilian and Belanger, Jocelyn J and Gutzkow, Ben and Abakoumkin, Georgios and Abdul Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum and Ahmedi, Vjollca and Akkas, Handan and Almenara, Carlos A and Atta, Mohsin and Bagci, Sabahat Cigdem and Basel, Sima and Kida, Edona Berisha and Bernardo, Allan B. I. and Buttrick, Nicholas R and Chobthamkit, Phatthanakit and Choi, Hoon-Seok and Cristea, Mioara and Csaba, Sara and Damnjanović, Kaja and Danyliuk, Ivan and Dash, Arobindu and Di Santo, Daniela and Enea, Violeta and Faller, Daiane and Fitzsimons, Gavan J and Gheorghiu, Alexandra and Gómez, Ángel and Hamaidia, Ali and Han, Qing and Helmy, Mai and Hudiyana, Joevarian and Jeronimus, Bertus F and Jiang, Ding-Yu and Jovanović, Veljko and Kamenov, Zeljka and Kende, Anna and Keng, Shian-Ling and Tra, Thi Thanh Kieu and Koc, Yasin and Kovyazina, Kamila and Kozytska, Inna and Krause, Joshua and Kruglanski, Arie W and Kurapov, Anton and Kutlaca, Maja and Lantos, Nóra Anna and Lemay Jr., Edward P and Lesmana, Cokorda Bagus J and Louis, Winnifred R and Lueders, Adrian and Iqbal Malik, Najma and Martinez, Anton P and McCabe, Kira O and Mehulić, Jasmina and Milla, Mirra Noor and Mohammed, Idris and Molinario, Erica and Moyano, Manuel and Muhammad, Hayat and Mula, Silvana and Muluk, Hamdi and Myroniuk, Solomiia and Najafi, Reza and Nisa, Claudia F and Nyúl, Boglárka and O'Keefe, Paul A and Osuna, Jose Javier Olivas and Osin, Evgeny N and Park, Joonha and Pica, Gennaro and Pierro, Antonio and Rees, Jonas H and Reitsema, Anne Margit and Resta, Elena and Rullo, Marika and Ryan, Michelle K and Samekin, Adil and Santtila, Pekka and Sasin, Edyta and Schumpe, Birga M and Selim, Heyla A and Stanton, Michael Vicente and Sultana, Samiah and Tseliou, Eleftheria and Utsugi, Akira and van Breen, Jolien A and Van Veen, Kees and vanDellen, Michelle R and Vázquez, Alexandra and Wollast, Robin and Yeung, Victoria Wai-lan and Zand, Somayeh and Žeželj, Iris Lav and Zheng, Bang and Zick, Andreas and Zúñiga, Claudia and Leander, N Pontus (2023) Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: a machine learning analysis. European Journal of Social Psychology.

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Abstract

Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country-level predictors included indicators of political stability and effective government COVID response, which suggests that conspiracy theorizing may thrive in relatively well-functioning democracies.

Item Type:	Article (Journal)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	conspiracy theories, country-level variables, COVID-19, machine learning, individual-level variables
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HM Sociology H Social Sciences > HM Sociology > HM1001 Social psychology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA644.C67 Coronavirus infections. COVID-19 (Disease). COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020
Kulliyyahs/Centres/Divisions/Institutes (Can select more than one option. Press CONTROL button):	Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences Kulliyyah of Islamic Revealed Knowledge and Human Sciences > Department of Psychology Centre for Malay World & Islamic Civilisation
Depositing User:	Dr Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom
Date Deposited:	13 Jul 2023 16:15
Last Modified:	26 Feb 2024 12:08
URI:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/id/eprint/105510

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